Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
8-9-0
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1360
· median 1442
· range 1164–1472
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1216
Q3 1407
1610
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
